ajmoore.xyz
Subscribe

Deck · 2026-10-06 · 14 slides

Metaplanet Q3 2026, Explained Simply

What happened at Metaplanet from July to September, what the 10th series fight is really about, and what to weigh before you hold or sell.

  1. Metaplanet · 3350.T · MPJPY

    Q3 2026, ELI5.

    What happened from July to September, what the 10th series fight is really about, and what to weigh before you hold or sell.

    2026-10-06 · Not financial advice

    01 / 14

    Purpose: a plain-English map of Metaplanet's third quarter (July to September 2026) so you can decide for yourself whether to hold or sell. MPJPY is the sponsored US ADR: 1 ADR = 1 Tokyo share (ticker 3350), traded over the counter in dollars. Prices in this deck are Tokyo yen unless noted. This is information, not a recommendation. I'm not a licensed financial advisor.

  2. The 30-second version

    Three things happened.

    01 · The piggy bank

    It held steady, but stopped growing.

    Metaplanet owned ₿43,000 on 2026-06-30 and still ₿43,000 on 2026-09-11. Bitcoin's price slid, and the stock slid more.

    02 · The reward pile

    The bosses' coupon pile got huge.

    A 2022 reward plan, the 10th series, quietly grew from about 46M to 319.5M possible shares as Metaplanet sold stock to buy bitcoin.

    03 · The fix

    The board cut it 41%, not to zero.

    Now 188.2M possible shares. Critics, VanEck included, say that's still too much and want a shareholder vote.

    02 · Sources: Metaplanet filings via BitcoinTreasuries.net; CoinDesk; Cointelegraph

    02 / 14

    Holdings: 43,000 BTC as of June 30, 2026 (Q2 results) and as of the September 11, 2026 filing. I found no bitcoin purchase reported in between. Series 10 pool: about 46M potential shares at the start, 319,464,000 by June 30, 2026, cut to 188,190,000 on September 11. VanEck's September 18 report still rated the plan "Bad".

  3. ELI5 · What Metaplanet is

    A piggy bank, sold in slices.

    Metaplanet sells slices of itself (shares) and uses the cash to buy bitcoin. Owning MPJPY means owning a slice of that piggy bank.

    ₿43,000

    Bitcoin held

    The piggy bank. Same amount on 2026-06-30 and 2026-09-11.

    ≈2,870

    Sats behind each share

    Bitcoin per slice. New shares with no new bitcoin make every slice thinner. That's dilution.

    ≈0.8×

    mNAV, mid-September

    A slice's price ÷ the bitcoin inside it. Under 1× means slices sell for less than their bitcoin.

    03 · Sources: Metaplanet 2026-09-11 filing via BitcoinTreasuries.net; Seeking Alpha

    03 / 14

    Sats per share: 43,000 BTC divided by about 1.50 billion effective fully diluted shares (the September 11 filing) is about 0.0000287 BTC, or roughly 2,870 sats, per share. mNAV: a Seeking Alpha analyst put Metaplanet near 0.79x EV/mNAV in mid-September 2026; it moves daily with the stock and bitcoin, so check the live figure on Metaplanet's site. When mNAV is above 1x, selling new shares to buy bitcoin can add bitcoin per share. Below 1x, it subtracts.

  4. Q3 2026 · July to September

    Nine dates that tell the story.

    2026-07-01

    Stock hits its 52-week low: ¥192.

    2026-07-02

    Reports ₿43,000 held; options income ¥1.747B, down 41% from Q1.

    2026-08-13

    Half-year results: revenue up 134%, but a ¥182.8B paper loss on bitcoin.

    2026-08-18

    Board stops the reward pile from growing and freezes it at 319.5M shares.

    2026-08-28

    CEO turns 92,000 coupons into 64.03M shares at ¥10 each.

    2026-09-08

    Stock drops about 17% in two days after the CEO's reply; closes at ¥244.

    2026-09-11

    Board cuts the pile 41% to 188.2M; sets a shareholder meeting for 2026-12-18.

    2026-09-18

    VanEck grades the pay plan "Bad", the only one among the 10 biggest peers.

    2026-09-29

    Independent directors publish a letter defending the plan.

    04 · Sources: Crypto Times; Coin360; Quartr; CoinDesk; The Block; Cointelegraph; crypto.news

    04 / 14

    Also in Q3: the Siiibo Securities purchase was set to close around July 13 and the unit renamed Metaplanet Securities; a Bitcoin Japan subsidiary agreed a 9.66 billion yen convertible bond with EVO Fund in July; a new CFO, Shinpei Okuno, was named on September 11. The 52-week range on September 11 ran from 192 yen (July 1, 2026) to 662 yen (October 6, 2025).

  5. The business in Q3

    The engine ran. The price didn't.

    ¥4.94B

    Revenue, Jan–Jun 2026 (+134%)

    Mostly fees from bitcoin options: renting out the piggy bank.

    −¥182.8B

    Paper loss, Jan–Jun 2026

    Bitcoin's yen price fell, so the books marked the coins down. It's non-cash.

    −38%

    Stock, 2026 through 09-11

    Bitcoin fell about 10% and Strategy about 13% over the same stretch.

    ¥16.0B

    2026 revenue goal, kept 08-13

    Also bought Siiibo Securities to sell bitcoin-backed bonds to more people.

    05 · Sources: Quartr (Q2 2026 results); Crypto Briefing; The Block (2026-09-11)

    05 / 14

    First-half 2026: revenue 4.94 billion yen (+133.7% year over year), operating profit 3.33 billion yen (+136.3%), interim net loss 182.8 billion yen driven by a 184.3 billion yen bitcoin valuation loss. Q2 options ("Bitcoin Income Generation") revenue was 1.747 billion yen, down about 41% from Q1. Full-year 2026 guidance kept at about 16.0 billion yen revenue and 11.4 billion yen operating profit. Price context: Metaplanet's average cost was about $104,100 per bitcoin as of Q1, while bitcoin traded around $79,000 to $81,000 in early-to-mid September, so the stack sat below its cost. The -38% / -10% / -13% comparison is The Block's, as of September 11, 2026.

  6. ELI5 · The 10th series

    The 10th series is a coupon pile.

    01

    In late 2022, Metaplanet was a struggling hotel company. Its managers bought these coupons with their own money.

    02

    Each coupon lets its holder buy 410 shares later, at just ¥10 a share.

    03

    If the company wins, that's a huge prize. If it had failed, the coupons would have been worth almost nothing.

    Price with a coupon

    ¥10

    Market price, 2026-09-29

    ≈¥286

    06 · Sources: CoinDesk (2026-09-08, 09-30); crypto-economy.com; BitcoinTreasuries.net

    06 / 14

    Formal name: 10th Series Stock Acquisition Rights. The plan was set up in December 2022, before the April 2024 bitcoin pivot, and issued in early 2023. There are 459,000 rights (units). Each right now converts into 410 shares (it was 696 before the September 11 amendment), exercise price 10 yen per share. The 286 yen market price is the level reported around the September 29 directors' letter; check today's price. Holders: CEO Simon Gerovich plus a handful of officers and employees.

  7. Why it blew up

    The pile grew all by itself.

    46M

    319.5M

    188.2M

    Late 2022
    Start

    2026-06-30
    Peak

    2026-09-11
    Now

    The rule: managers keep about 20% of the whole pie, no matter how big the pie gets.

    Every time Metaplanet sold new shares to buy bitcoin, the pie grew, so the pile grew too. No vote needed.

    VanEck's estimate: holders kept about four-fifths of the value of each bitcoin bought. The pile soaked up the rest.

    07 · Sources: BitcoinTreasuries.net; CoinDesk; Blockonomi (VanEck report, 2026-09-18)

    07 / 14

    Possible shares under the 10th series: about 46 million at the start, 319,464,000 by June 30, 2026 (nearly 7x), and 188,190,000 after the September 11 cut (about 4x the original). The plan reserved roughly 20% of fully diluted share capital for the holders, so every capital raise made the pool bigger automatically. Shares outstanding grew from about 153.9 million at the start of the bitcoin strategy to about 1.28 billion by June 2026. Shareholders had been asking for the roughly 273 million shares added by that formula to be cancelled. VanEck's "about 80% passed through" figure refers to the period before the August and September cuts.

  8. August and September

    Two fixes in four weeks.

    08-18: the freeze.

    • Pile stops growing when new shares are sold. For good.
    • Frozen at 319.5M possible shares.
    • Coupon shares locked until 2031-08-17.

    09-11: the cut.

    • Each coupon: 696 shares → 410.
    • Pile cut 41%, to 188.2M shares.
    • Unused part cut 55%, to 105.4M.
    • Unvested ones wait until 2029–2031.
    • Employee coupon pool: scrapped.

    +8.8%

    Bitcoin per diluted share, thanks to the cut.

    08 · Sources: Metaplanet TSE filings via BitcoinTreasuries.net; The Block; Unchained

    08 / 14

    August 18, 2026: the board removed the adjustment clause that kept the pool at about 20% of fully diluted shares, froze it at 319,464,000 potential shares, kept the 10 yen exercise price and added a lock-up through August 17, 2031. September 11, 2026: shares per right cut from 696 to 410 (the ratio just before the September 2025 international offering, which the company called the point where raises stopped being strongly accretive). Total potential shares fell 41.1%, from 319.46M to 188.19M; remaining unexercised potential shares fell 55.5%, from 236.64M to 105.37M. Unvested rights become exercisable in equal thirds on August 18 of 2029, 2030 and 2031. The plan to move up to 90,000 rights into a staff incentive vehicle was withdrawn. Gerovich said the reset extinguishes over $220 million of warrant value.

  9. The case against

    Why many holders are still upset.

    The timing.

    Ten days after the freeze, the CEO paid ≈¥640M for 64.03M shares worth ≈¥15.6B. The cut didn't touch them.

    Still far above peers.

    VanEck: the pool is 14.7% of shares vs a 4.0% peer average. The only "Bad" grade among the 10 biggest.

    No shareholder vote.

    Holders never voted on the pile's growth or the 2026 changes. Critics want a new, approved plan.

    The MMXX question.

    A shareholder tied to the CEO. Critics say it sold ~50M shares in 2024; Metaplanet hasn't said.

    09 · Sources: CoinDesk; Crowdfund Insider; Cointelegraph and Blockonomi (VanEck, 2026-09-18)

    09 / 14

    The timing: Gerovich exercised 92,000 rights on August 28, 2026 and received 64,032,000 shares at 10 yen each (about 640 million yen), lifting his direct stake from about 15.6M to 79.6M shares. At the September 8 close of 244 yen those shares were worth roughly 15.6 billion yen (my arithmetic: 64.032M x 244); they are locked until 2031. The September 11 cut did not return them. VanEck (September 18): Metaplanet failed all four of its compensation tests; pool at 14.7% of fully diluted shares vs a 4.0% peer average; it wants the ~273M-share expansion reversed and a shareholder-approved plan tied to bitcoin per share. MMXX Ventures: earlier Japanese filings described Gerovich as holding indirect majority voting rights; he now says he is a significant but non-majority holder of its parent with no role in trading. The ~50M share sale claim comes from a shareholder known as The Bitcoin Pharaoh and has not been confirmed by Metaplanet. Fair counterpoint: Nakamoto CEO David Bailey defended the pool's size.

  10. The case for · Directors' letter, 2026-09-29

    The board's side of the story.

    They took the early risk.

    Managers paid for the coupons themselves in 2022, when the company was struggling and pay was low.

    They listened, twice.

    Froze the pile on 08-18, cut it 41% on 09-11. The auto-growth rule is gone for good.

    The CEO sat it out.

    Gerovich, the only director holding coupons, skipped the vote. Every coupon holder agreed to the cut.

    Shares are locked.

    Coupon shares, the CEO's included, are locked until 2031-08-17. A new pay plan is being designed.

    10 · Sources: CoinDesk (2026-09-30); crypto.news; crypto-economy.com; BitcoinTreasuries.net

    10 / 14

    From the September 29 letter by Metaplanet's independent directors (none of whom were on the board when the rights were issued): management bought the rights at fair value with personal funds while the company was a struggling hotel operator; the rights should be read as a turnaround investment and long-term incentive, not ordinary pay; management accepted multi-year vesting and lower cash pay than peers; the framework got majority shareholder approval in 2023. Exercised plus unexercised rights are about 12.5% of total shares (VanEck's 14.7% uses a different base). The letter gave no new detail on MMXX Ventures or a launch date for the new compensation framework, which is being designed with an outside consultant. If every remaining right is exercised, Metaplanet receives about 1.05 billion yen. Gerovich also points to board refresh: he says 9 of 10 directors are now independent.

  11. Both sides, side by side

    Why people hold. Why people sell.

    Reasons people hold

    • Two cuts in four weeks; the auto-growth rule is gone for good.
    • Near 0.8× mNAV in mid-September: bitcoin exposure at a discount.
    • Real options revenue; the ¥16.0B 2026 revenue goal still stands.
    • When bitcoin rebounds, Metaplanet has tended to rise faster.
    • Coupon shares are locked to 2031; unvested ones wait until 2029.

    Reasons people sell

    • Trust took a hit: the exercise timing and MMXX questions are open.
    • 105.4M possible coupon shares remain, about 7% of the diluted count.
    • Below 1× mNAV, new shares make slices thinner, so buying stalls.
    • The 100,000-bitcoin goal for end-2026 is far off at ₿43,000.
    • It falls harder than bitcoin: −38% vs −10% this year to 09-11.

    11 · Sources: Seeking Alpha; Quartr; BitcoinTreasuries.net; The Block; Decrypt (555 Million Plan)

    11 / 14

    Neither column is a recommendation; they are the arguments each camp makes. The 7% figure is 105.37M remaining potential Series 10 shares divided by about 1.50B effective fully diluted shares. The 555 Million Plan targets 100,000 BTC by end of 2026 and 210,000 by end of 2027; at 43,000 BTC that needs about 57,000 more in under three months. A Seeking Alpha analyst initiated at a cautious Hold in September, citing governance and dilution overhang despite the discount; others, such as Strive CEO Matt Cole, publicly praised the board's response.

  12. Your call

    Five questions before you hold or sell.

    01

    Do I still believe in bitcoin over my time horizon?

    If not, nothing else on this slide matters much.

    02

    Would I rather just own bitcoin directly?

    The stock adds a discount (under 1× mNAV) plus management and dilution risk.

    03

    Can I live with the dilution that's still possible?

    Up to 105.4M more coupon shares, about 7% of the diluted count, remain possible.

    04

    Do I trust this team to put holders first?

    Weigh two quick fixes against the open timing and MMXX questions.

    05

    Could I sit through another 50% drop?

    From its 2025 peak to early September 2026, the stock fell about 85%.

    12 · Not financial advice. For advice on your situation, talk to a licensed advisor.

    12 / 14

    A simple way to use this: answer each question with yes, no or unsure before you look at today's price. Mostly yes means the thesis you bought for is intact; a no on 01 or 05 usually matters more than the rest. Position sizing is a third option between holding everything and selling everything. The 85% figure is Crowdfund Insider's, from the 2025 peak to early September 2026.

  13. What to watch next

    Signals that would change the story.

    2026-10-28

    The buyback approval (up to 150M shares) runs out. Renewed or not?

    2026-12-18

    Shareholders vote on moving ¥27.8B into surplus, which makes room for buybacks or dividends.

    Any day

    mNAV back above 1×. Then new shares can add bitcoin per share again.

    Any day

    A shareholder-approved pay plan, or a full MMXX disclosure.

    Any day

    The next bitcoin purchase. Last count I found: ₿43,000 on 2026-09-11.

    13 · Sources: Metaplanet repurchase notice (2026-04-01); Crypto Times (2026-09-11)

    13 / 14

    Buyback: the board's October 28, 2025 resolution allows repurchasing up to 150,000,000 common shares through October 28, 2026; the April 1, 2026 status notice showed none bought in March. Capital reduction: the proposal cuts capital stock from about 27.8 billion yen to 1 yen and moves the rest into other capital surplus; the extraordinary meeting is December 18, 2026 (virtual), record date September 30, 2026, effective December 30 if approved. ADR holders usually vote through the depositary bank, so check with your broker. Metaplanet's Q3 results date was not confirmed in what I found.

  14. Sources

    Where the numbers come from.

    Prices move every day. Check the live MPJPY quote and Metaplanet's own mNAV figure before you act. This deck is a map, not a verdict.

    14 · Researched 2026-10-06 · Not financial advice

    14 / 14

    All figures were gathered on October 6, 2026 from the reporting above, which itself relies mostly on Metaplanet's Tokyo Stock Exchange filings. Where outlets disagreed or a figure was an estimate (mNAV, the CEO share value), the slide says so or the speaker notes explain the math.

bitcointreasury-companiesmetaplanet