Deck · 2026-10-06 · 10 slides
ASST Warrants, Explained Like You're 5
23.2 million coupons to buy Strive stock at $27 run out next week. What they are, what happens, and why nobody knows which way the stock goes.
ASST · STRIVE · WARRANT DEADLINE
The $27 coupon, ELI5.
23.2 million coupons to buy Strive stock at $27 run out next week. What they are, what happens, and why nobody knows which way the stock goes.
DEADLINE ~2026-10-13
01 / 10Strive (ASST) still has about 23.2 million "traditional" warrants from its September 2025 PIPE, each letting the holder buy one share at $27. They expire on the one-year anniversary of the PIPE resale registration (October 2025); traders peg the date at October 13, 2026. This deck walks through what that means, step by step.
STEP 1 · THE JAR
Strive is a big jar of bitcoin.
Picture a cookie jar, but full of bitcoin. A share is a ticket that says you own a tiny piece of what's inside.
BITCOIN IN THE JAR
29,462
As of 2026-10-02. About $2.5B at today's price.
TICKETS (SHARES)
103.7M
Every share, counting ones promised to staff.
SATS PER TICKET
28,400
About $24 of bitcoin behind every share.
Source: Strive 8-K, 2026-10-05. Bitcoin at ~$84,000.
02 / 10Uses Strive's "assumed fully diluted shares" of 103.7M as of October 2, which leaves the warrants out. 29,462 BTC divided by 103.7M shares is about 28,400 sats per share, roughly $24 at $84k. Strive also holds about $285M cash and has about $1.35B of SATA preferred ahead of common holders; both are left out here to keep it simple.
STEP 2 · THE COUPON
A warrant is a coupon with a deadline.
STRIVE · ASST · WARRANT
Good for 1 share.
You pay $27.
VALID UNTIL ~2026-10-13
In September 2025, investors handed Strive about $750 million.
As a thank-you, they got one coupon for every share they bought.
Each coupon lets them buy one more share for $27, any time until next week. After that, it's trash.
The coupon read $1.35 before Strive's 1-for-20 reverse split in February 2026. Same deal, new label.
Source: Strive 10-K for FY2025 and 2025 prospectus filings.
03 / 10The PIPE closed on 2025-09-12 with $749.6M gross proceeds. Every share or pre-funded warrant bought came with one "traditional" warrant at a $1.35 strike, which became $27 after the 1-for-20 reverse split on 2026-02-06. That's 555.3M warrants pre-split, or about 27.8M post-split shares, with the right to raise another ~$750M if all are exercised.
STEP 3 · HOW MANY
About 23 million coupons are still unused.
COUPONS LEFT
23.2M
×
PRICE EACH
$27
=
CASH IF ALL USED
$628M
And holders are cashing them in faster.
WEEK TO 09-25
0.46M used · ~$12M
WEEK TO 10-02
2.10M used · ~$57M
Source: Strive 8-K filings, 2026-09-28 and 2026-10-05.
04 / 10As of 2026-10-02 there were 23,249,706 shares underlying the traditional warrants. At $27 each that's $627.7M. The original pool was about 27.76M split-adjusted, so roughly 4.5M (16%) have been used so far, and about 3.35M (~$90M) since early September, when the stock first got close to $27.
STEP 4 · WOULD YOU USE IT?
You only use a coupon that saves you money.
TODAY · 2026-10-06
$29.91
Store price, against a $27 coupon.
Use it. You save $2.91 a share.
IF IT DROPS
Below $27
The store is cheaper than the coupon.
Skip it. The coupon expires worthless.
Each coupon is worth about $2.91 right now. That's why holders started using them once the stock crossed $27 in mid-September.
Price: ASST intraday, 2026-10-06, via Stock Analysis.
05 / 10ASST was trading near $29.91 midday on October 6, about 10.8% above the $27 strike, after a previous close of $30.26. With a week to go and the stock above $27, a warrant holder makes money by exercising. If ASST falls under $27 by the deadline, nobody would rationally pay $27 for a share they can buy cheaper, and the remaining warrants simply expire.
STEP 5 · WHAT HAPPENS
Every used coupon does two things at once.
MORE TICKETS
+23.2M
About 22% more shares. Each slice gets thinner.
MORE BITCOIN
+₿7,470
$628M buys them at $84k: 25% more in the jar.
28,400 → 29,100 sats per ticket (+2.4%)
Each ticket holds ~$24 of bitcoin, but a new one costs $27. The extra ~$3 grows everyone's slice.
Illustrative: assumes every coupon is used and all the cash buys bitcoin at $84,000.
06 / 10Math: 23.25M warrant shares on 103.7M assumed diluted shares is +22.4%. $627.7M at $84,000 per bitcoin is about 7,470 BTC on top of 29,462, or +25.4%. Sats per share go from about 28,400 to about 29,100, roughly +2.4%. Exercise is accretive to bitcoin per share because the $27 strike is above the ~$24 of bitcoin each share currently represents. Ignores cash, SATA preferred and any other share sales during the same window.
STEP 6 · UP OR DOWN?
It's a tug-of-war.
PULLING IT DOWN ↓
More shares. Up to 23.2M new ones, about 22% more.
Profit-taking. Some holders sell the shares the day they get them.
The pin. A big pile of coupons can tug the price toward $27 near the deadline.
More selling later. Strive can keep selling new shares through a $2.55B program.
PULLING IT UP ↑
$628M of bitcoin buying. Fresh cash goes straight into the jar.
Bigger slices. New money pays more than the bitcoin each share holds.
The cloud lifts. After 2026-10-13, 23M maybe-shares stop hanging over the stock.
More fuel. The CEO says it could unlock ~$700M more in preferred-stock raises.
07 / 10Down: dilution from up to 23.25M new shares; holders who exercise and immediately sell; the common "pin" effect where a large in-the-money warrant stack draws the price toward the strike near expiry; and Strive's $2.55B at-the-market program for common stock, which some traders expect to be used once the warrants are settled. Up: up to $628M of new cash for bitcoin; exercise is accretive to bitcoin per share; the overhang disappears after expiry; and CEO Matt Cole said in September that warrant cash could support roughly another $700M of SATA preferred ("digital credit") issuance.
STEP 7 · THE SHORT-SELLER TWIST
A short squeeze is less likely than it looks.
01
Lots of bets against ASST.
About 30% of the tradable shares were sold short in September.
02
Many are coupon holders playing safe.
The classic hedge: hold the coupon, short the stock, lock in the gap.
03
They repay with coupon shares.
Using the coupon hands them shares to give back. No market buying, so no squeeze from them.
Outright bears still have to buy shares back, so a squeeze isn't impossible. It's just smaller than the headline number suggests.
Short interest as reported in September 2026. How much of it is hedging isn't disclosed; this is the usual warrant pattern.
08 / 10September coverage put ASST short interest around 30% of float, and CEO Matt Cole framed the run into October as shorts versus warrant holders. A standard warrant trade is to hold the warrant and short the stock against it. When those holders exercise, the new shares close out their short, so that slice of short interest disappears without anyone buying in the open market. The exact split between hedges and outright bears isn't public, so treat this as a likely pattern, not a fact.
STEP 8 · THREE PATHS
How next week could play out.
STAYS ABOVE $27
NOW
Coupons get used.
About $628M arrives, Strive buys a big pile of bitcoin, and there are ~22% more shares.
DROPS BELOW $27
Coupons expire.
No new shares, but no new cash either. The bitcoin buying slows down.
AFTER 2026-10-13
The cloud is gone.
Either way, the overhang ends. Expect Strive to keep raising money with new shares and SATA preferred.
With ASST near $30 and coupons getting used every week, the first path is the one in motion today. A week is a long time in bitcoin, though.
09 / 10Path 1 is what's happening now: the stock is about 11% above the strike and 2.1M warrant shares were exercised in the week to October 2. Path 2 needs roughly a 10%+ drop before the deadline, which is well within ASST's normal weekly range. Path 3 happens either way: once the warrants are gone, the overhang is gone, and Strive has said it intends to keep issuing common (via its at-the-market program) and SATA preferred to grow its bitcoin per share.
THE ANSWER
So, up or down? Nobody knows.
The coupons matter at the edges. The big lever is bitcoin: ASST tends to move like bitcoin with the volume turned up.
WHAT TO WATCH
ASST vs. $27
Holding above it through 2026-10-13 means the cash shows up.
Weekly 8-K filings
Coupons used and bitcoin bought, each Monday: 2026-10-12 and 2026-10-19.
Bitcoin's price
Still the biggest driver of all.
Share sales after
How fast Strive sells new stock once the deadline passes.
Not financial advice. I'm not a financial advisor; this explains the mechanics, not where the price goes.
10 / 10Short-term, the warrant deadline shifts supply and demand around the margins. Bigger picture, ASST is a leveraged bet on bitcoin per share, so bitcoin's price will likely swamp everything else. The weekly 8-Ks are the cleanest scoreboard: watch the "Shares Underlying Traditional Warrants" line fall toward zero and the bitcoin count rise.
bitcointreasury-companiesasst